Factors determining the price of the Decarbonization Credit (CBIO) and implications for Brazil's RenovaBio Policy

Henriques Ferreira Lima, Marianna Y da Gama Afonso, Herlander Costa Alegre (2026) Factors determining the price of the Decarbonization Credit (CBIO) and implications for Brazil's RenovaBio Policy. Revista Tendencias, 27 (02). pp. 174-200. ISSN 0124-8693

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Resumen

Introduction: Global warming poses challenges for economic decarbonization, highlighting the pricing of environmental assets such as the Decarbonization Certificate (CBIO). Objective: To analyze the influence of macroeconomic and market variables oil (WTI), natural gas, dollar exchange rate (USD/BRL), VIX index, and traded volume on CBIO price formation under the RenovaBio policy. Methodology: A multiple linear regression model estimated by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) was applied to daily time series data spanning four years. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root and Engle-Granger cointegration tests were used to validate estimation in levels, along with the Breusch-Godfrey test for autocorrelation and re-estimation using Newey-West Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent (HAC) standard errors. Results: Oil, the dollar, and the VIX are statistically significant predictors of the CBIO price, even after correcting standard errors. Discussion: Sensitivity to external volatility and energy commodities links Brazilian decarbonization to global dynamics, limiting national autonomy in the face of external shocks. Conclusions: CBIO behaves as a financial asset sensitive to market variables, but requires regulatory mechanisms to mitigate exchange rate volatility in order to incentivize stable investments in biofuels.

Tipo de Elemento:	Artículo
Palabras Clave:	climate change; raw material; economic research; energy policy; environmental economics
Asunto:	Ciencias Sociales > HC Economic History and Conditions
Division:	Revistas > Tendencias
Depósito de Usuario:	FACEA Fac. de Ciencias Econ. y Aministrativas
Fecha Deposito:	15 Sep 2026 16:22
Ultima Modificación:	15 Sep 2026 16:22
URI:	http://sired.udenar.edu.co/id/eprint/19183

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